Impacts of climate change on the Asiatic cheetahs' (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) habitat (case study: Touran Protected Complex)

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change is known as one of the main reasons biodiversity loss and
natural ecosystems destruction. Carnivores are strongly affected by habitat changes, due to
their large home range and low population density, and they are often forced to change their
distribution to unsuitable habitats. One of the important carnivores is Asiatic cheetah, which
there are probably only less than 40 left in Iran.
Materials and Methods: The purpose of this research is to predict and evaluate climate
change on the Asiatic cheetah habitat in Touran protecting complex using presence points,
environmental factors (such as elevation, slope, vegetation type, distribution of prey (Indian
Gazelle, Persian Gazelle, Wild Goat, Wild Sheep), water sources (springs), roads, etc),
climatic variables and species distribution models such as CTA, RF, MARS and SRE in R
software. For forecasting, GISS-E2-1-H climate model and 4 scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5,
SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 were used and the habitat suitability map of Asiatic cheetah under
current and future climate conditions was prepared.
Results: The results showed that the area of suitable habitats is currently about 300000
hectares, which in 2050 under the optimistic scenario will be 240000 hectares and under the
pessimistic scenario will be 165000 hectares. In 2050, the suitable habitat of Asiatic cheetah
in Touran protecting complex will be separated from the current suitable areas and will be
moved to the borders and outside the study area.
Conclusion: There are some strategies for managing the likely climate change impacts on
Asiatic cheetah’s habitat in order to conserve the species and its habitat more effectively,
including, increasing conserving proceedings to recover grasslands and prey population in
suitable habitats, designing new Protected Areas and extending the border of current
Protected Areas and creating corridors between the current and potential habitats of cheetah.